Tony Blair on China

We Can Help China Embrace the Future
By TONY BLAIR
August 26, 2008; Page A21

The Beijing Olympic Games were a powerful spectacle, stunning in sight andsound. But the moment that made the biggest impression on me came during aninformal visit just before the Games to one of the new Chinese Internetcompanies, and in conversation with some of the younger Chinese entrepreneurs.

These people, men and women, were smart, sharp, forthright, unafraid toexpress their views about China and its future. Above all, there was aconfidence, an optimism, a lack of the cynical, and a presence of thespirit of get up and go, that reminded me greatly of the U.S. at its bestand any country on its way forward.

These people weren't living in fear, but looking forward in hope. And forall the millions still in poverty in China, for all the sweep of issues --political, social and economic -- still to be addressed, that was thespirit of China during this festival of sport, and that is the spirit thatwill define its future.

During my 10 years as British leader, I could see the accelerating pace ofChina's continued emergence as a major power. I gave speeches about China,I understood it analytically. But I did not feel it emotionally andtherefore did not fully understand it politically.

Since leaving office I have visited four times and will shortly returnagain. People ask what is the legacy of these Olympics for China? It isthat they mark a new epoch -- an opening up of China that can never bereversed. It also means that ignorance and fear of China will steadilydecline as the reality of modern China becomes more apparent.

Power and influence is shifting to the East. In time will come India, too.Some see all this as a threat. I see it as an enormous opportunity. But wehave to exercise a lot of imagination and eliminate any vestiges of historic arrogance.

The volunteer force that staged the Games was interested, friendly andhelpful. The whole feel of the city was a world away from the China Iremember on my first visit 20 years ago. And the people are proud, reallyand honestly proud, of their country and its progress.

No sensible Chinese person -- including the country's leadership -- doubtsthere remain issues of human rights and political and religious freedom tobe resolved. But neither do the sensible people -- including the mostWestern-orientated Chinese -- doubt the huge change, for the better, therehas been. China is on a journey. It is moving forward quickly. But it knowsperfectly well the journey is not complete. Observers should illuminate thedistance to go, by all means, but recognize the distance traveled.

The Chinese leadership is understandably preoccupied with internaldevelopment. Beijing and Shanghai no more paint for you the completepicture of China than New York and Washington do of the U.S. Understandingthe internal challenge is fundamental to understanding China, its politicsand its psyche. We in Europe have roughly 5% of our population employed inagriculture. China has almost 60%. Over the coming years it will seek tomove hundreds of millions of its people from a rural to an urban economy.Of course India will seek to do the same, and the scale of thistransformation will create huge challenges and opportunities in the economy, the environment and politically.

For China, this economic and social transformation has to come with political stability. It is in all our interests that it does. The policy of One China is not a piece of indulgent nationalism. It is an existential issue if China is to hold together in a peaceful and stable manner as itmodernizes. This is why Tibet is not simply a religious issue for China buta profoundly political one -- Tibet being roughly a quarter of China's landmass albeit with a small population.

So we should continue to engage in a dialogue over the issues that rightly concern people, but we should conduct it with at least some sensitivity to the way China sees them.

This means that the West needs a strong partnership with China, one thatgoes deep, not just economically but politically and culturally. The truthis that nothing in the 21st century will work well without China's fullengagement. The challenges we face today are global. China is now a majorglobal player. So whether the issue is climate change, Africa, world tradeor the myriad of security questions, we need China to be constructive; weneed it to be using its power in partnership with us. None of this means weshouldn't continue to raise the issues of human rights, religious freedomsand democratic reforms as European and American leaders have done in recent weeks.

It is possible to hyperbolize about the rise of China. For example,Europe's economies are still major and combined outreach those of China and India combined. But, as the Olympics and its medal tables show, it is notgoing to stay that way. This is a historic moment of change. Fast forward10 years and everyone will know it.

For centuries, the power has resided in the West, with various European powers including the British Empire and then, in the 20th century, the U.S. Now we will have to come to terms with a world in which the power is shared with the Far East. I wonder if we quite understand what that means, we whose culture (not just our politics and economies) has dominated for so long. It will be a rather strange, possibly unnerving experience. Personally, I think it will be incredibly enriching. New experiences; new ways of thinking liberate creative energy. But in any event, it will be afact we have to come to terms with. For the next U.S. president, this willbe or should be at the very top of the agenda, and as a result of thestrength of the Sino-U.S. relationship under President Bush, there is asound platform to build upon.

The Olympics is now the biggest sporting event in the world, and because ofthe popularity of sport it is therefore one of the events that makes agenuine impact on real people. These Games have given people a glimpse ofmodern China in a way that no amount of political speeches could do.

London 2012 gives Britain a tremendous chance to explore some of thesechanges and explain to the East what the modern West is about. One thing isfor certain: Hosting the Olympics is now a fantastic opportunity for anynation. My thoughts after the Beijing Games are that we shouldn't try toemulate the wonder of the opening ceremony. It was the spectacular to endall spectaculars and probably can never be bettered. We should instead dosomething different, drawing maybe on the ideals and spirit of the Olympicmovement. We should do it our way, like they did it theirs. And we shouldlearn from and respect each other. That is the way of the 21st century.

Mr. Blair, former prime minister of Great Britain, is teaching a course onfaith and globalization at the Yale Schools of Management and Divinity.